Institutions bought, retail sold — but KOSPI still closed higher for a fourth straight day
🎧 Post Summary
📌 Summary
On September 23, the KOSPI closed up 63.01 points (0.90%) at 7,080.92, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains. The index surged nearly 2% at the open but gave back most of its gains as profit-taking hit ahead of the Chuseok holiday, in a classic “strong open, weak close” session. Samsung Electronics jumped 3.25% to 285,500 won as its roughly 30-trillion-won cash dividend plan came into focus ahead of the Q3 dividend record date, while SK Hynix rose 1.20% to 1,862,000 won. Institutions and other corporate investors drove the gains, while retail investors sold for a fourth straight day and foreigners turned net sellers for the first time in three sessions. Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on news of contact between US and Iranian delegations, adding a sense of relief to the market.
With the Chuseok holiday just a day away, the KOSPI offered investors some relief on September 23. The index surged nearly 2% at the open and briefly flirted with the 7,200 level, but gave back most of those gains in a “strong open, weak close” session before settling at 7,080.92. That marked a fourth consecutive day of gains. Two forces shaped the day: stabilizing global oil prices and dividend news out of Samsung Electronics.
① KOSPI Holds 7,080 After a “Strong Open, Weak Close” Session Ahead of Chuseok
The KOSPI opened brightly, up 136.08 points (1.94%) at 7,153.99, lifted by strength in U.S. semiconductor stocks overnight and a stabilizing pullback in oil prices. The index briefly attempted to break above 7,200 in the morning, but caution over external variables during the Chuseok holiday and profit-taking quickly eroded the gains. At one point during the session it even dipped below the 7,000 level. In the end, the index closed up 63.01 points (0.90%) at 7,080.92. Daishin Securities attributed the pattern to a mix of short-term profit-taking ahead of the holiday and investor caution over external risks.
② Chipmakers Go From Diverging to Rallying Together Overnight
A day earlier, on September 22, Samsung Electronics rose 0.9% while SK Hynix fell 1.5%, splitting the fortunes of Korea’s two chip giants. The mood flipped within a day. On September 23, Samsung Electronics jumped 3.25% to 285,500 won and SK Hynix added 1.20% to 1,862,000 won, rising together. Samsung’s strength owed much to dividend news. On August 21, Samsung’s board approved a shareholder-return plan worth 90–110 trillion won for the year, with roughly 30 trillion won of that earmarked for a Q3 cash dividend — combining a regular dividend of about 2.45 trillion won with a special dividend. That would be about five times the company’s previous record of 20.3 trillion won, set in 2020. Based on roughly 6.57 billion dividend-eligible shares, industry estimates put the per-share dividend in the neighborhood of 4,500 won, though the exact amount and the Q3 record date (expected September 30) will be finalized at the board meeting in late October. With the record date just a week away, related buying appears to have flowed into the stock.
③ Why Oil Fell — A New York Meeting Between US and Iranian Delegations
Oil prices fell 1.1% for Brent and 1.2% for WTI, both settling below $100 a barrel. The drop came after reports that US and Iranian delegations held a three-hour “dramatic conversation” in New York, shortly after President Trump had warned of “annihilation” — easing fears of a wider escalation. The US and Israel’s armed conflict with Iran, which began in late February, has dragged on for more than half a year, stoking tension around the Strait of Hormuz and unsettling global energy supply. That’s what made this contact feel like real relief to markets. Still, some analysts caution that since talks remain at an early stage, it’s too soon to say whether the drop in oil prices will hold.
④ Reading the Flows — Institutions vs. Retail Investors Pulling in Opposite Directions
Behind the day’s gain was mostly the work of institutions and other corporate investors. Institutions bought a net 316.9 billion won and other corporate entities bought a net 1.6323 trillion won, providing the key lift that pushed the index to the 7,080 level. Foreign investors, by contrast, sold a net 504.7 billion won, turning net sellers for the first time in three sessions, while retail investors sold a massive net 1.4396 trillion won, extending their selling streak to four straight days — a sign of just how strong the urge to lock in profits was ahead of the holiday. The KOSDAQ reversed course after one down day, closing up 10.10 points (1.21%) at 844.48. The won/dollar exchange rate ended the day at 1,358.4 won, up 0.2 won. Overnight on Wall Street, the Nasdaq rose 0.45% while the Dow fell 0.36% in a mixed session.
⑤ What the Market Is Watching Over the Chuseok Holiday
At its September 15–16 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% — its first hike since July 2023, approved unanimously by all 12 voting members. The move was a preemptive attempt to rein in inflationary pressure from the US-Iran conflict, which has dragged on longer than expected. In its wake, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly topped 5% again, its highest level in 19 years — a result, analysts say, of oil costs tied to the prolonged Middle East conflict, stubborn inflation, and a swelling US fiscal deficit all colliding at once. Korea’s stock market will be closed for the Chuseok holiday, but these external forces won’t take a break — which is exactly what has investors on guard.
📌 Investor Notes
- Samsung’s 30-trillion-won dividend is not yet finalized. The exact per-share amount and record date will be set at the board meeting in late October, and investors should keep in mind the possibility of a typical pullback after the ex-dividend date.
- Retail investors’ four-day selling streak is widely read as short-term, holiday-driven profit-taking, but the possibility of an early trend reversal can’t be ruled out.
- Korea’s stock market will be closed for Chuseok, but US Treasury yields, Middle East developments, and other external variables keep moving. Watch for gap volatility on the first trading day after the holiday.
- Oil remains close to $100 a barrel. If US-Iran talks don’t lead to substantive progress, prices could climb again.
Ahead of Chuseok, the KOSPI didn’t hold onto all of its intraday gains, but it still delivered a fourth straight day higher. Institutions and other corporate investors drove the index up, while dividend optimism around Samsung Electronics lifted both chip giants together. Still, retail and foreign investors both turned to selling at the same time, and external variables like oil prices and US interest rates keep moving even during the holiday — factors that will help decide which way the market leans once trading resumes.
Sources
- Jaekyung Ilbo — “KOSPI Holds 7,000 Level in Strong-Open, Weak-Close Session Ahead of Chuseok, as Institutions Offset Retail Selling” (news.jkn.co.kr)
- Jaekyung Ilbo — “Chipmakers Diverge: Samsung Electronics Up 0.9% vs. SK Hynix Down 1.5%” (news.jkn.co.kr)
- Jaekyung Ilbo — “Fed Raises Rates, Yet US 10-Year Yield Tops 5% Too — Pressure Builds on Korea’s Bonds and Mortgages” (news.jkn.co.kr)
- Jaekyung Ilbo — “Right After Trump’s ‘Annihilation’ Warning, US and Iran Hold Three-Hour ‘Dramatic Talks’ in New York” (news.jkn.co.kr)
- MTN (Money Today Network) — “Samsung Electronics Announces Record 110 Trillion Won Shareholder Return, Including 30 Trillion Won Q3 Cash Dividend” (news.mtn.co.kr)
- inews24 — “Samsung Electronics to Pay 30 Trillion Won Q3 Cash Dividend, Record 110 Trillion Won Shareholder Return This Year” (inews24.com)
- WikiTree — “Samsung Electronics Dividend Set to Jump More Than 10-Fold in Two Months — What 100 Shares Would Be Worth” (wikitree.co.kr)