The KOSPI held the 6,000 line through a sixth straight decline, but foreign selling that erased an early 2% rally is testing the market’s stamina
🎧 Post Summary
📌 1-Minute Summary
On October 14, the KOSPI fell 0.44% to close at 6,008.81, its sixth consecutive daily decline. The index rose more than 2% early in the session, but foreign investors net sold about 1.1 trillion won and the gains were given back. The KOSDAQ fell 1.57% to 823.88. The won-dollar exchange rate ended at 1,338.3, down 6.8 won. On Wall Street overnight, stocks fell as chip shares weakened for a fifth straight session, weighed down by news of China’s CXMT progress in memory technology. Tonight’s US September consumer price index and oil moves tied to the Middle East are the next variables.
The KOSPI was pushed down to around the 6,000 level by a 5.46% plunge on Tuesday, and on October 14 it looked ready to break its losing streak, climbing more than 2% early on. But foreign selling capped the move, and the index ended 0.44% lower. The decline was small, yet a sixth straight losing session shows that the rebound is still weak. Here is a walk-through of flows, the won, Wall Street and tonight’s key variables.
① Sixth straight decline: the early 2% rebound did not last
The KOSPI closed at 6,008.81 on October 14, down 26.54 points (0.44%) from the previous session. After five straight declines, dip-buying lifted the index more than 2% early on, but growing foreign selling and weakness in large-cap chip stocks wiped out those gains. The KOSDAQ ended at 823.88, down 13.15 points (1.57%). On the KOSDAQ, retail investors net bought 385.3 billion won worth of shares, but could not offset the net selling by foreign and institutional investors.
② Flows: over 1 trillion won of foreign net selling, with retail defending
Foreign investors drove the decline. They net sold about 1.1 trillion won on the KOSPI, and institutions were also net sellers, while retail investors stepped in to defend the lower end of the index. On October 13, foreigners sold about 4.5 trillion won in a single day, and as of October 12 they had been net sellers for 14 straight sessions, a cumulative total of roughly 20.9 trillion won. Even though the index’s drop narrowed, it is hard to say the foreign selling itself has ended.
③ Won at 1,338.3: a weaker dollar and exporter selling pushed it lower
The won-dollar rate ended daytime trading at 1,338.3, down 6.8 won from the previous session. The rate had jumped 10 won the day before on the KOSPI plunge and heavy foreign selling, so it turned lower after just one day. Easing worries about further Fed tightening weighed on the dollar index, and steady dollar-selling by exporters (so-called nego flows), backed by strong chip exports, also helped. However, foreign stock selling, fears of higher oil prices from the Middle East, and caution ahead of US CPI limited the decline.
④ Wall Street: chips weak for five straight sessions, and the ‘CXMT factor’
All three major US indexes fell on October 13 (local time). The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.35% to 51,670.10, the S&P 500 fell 0.02% to 7,805.45, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15% to 27,204.38. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined for a fifth straight session in the wake of China’s CXMT technology announcement, and results from the big banks that opened third-quarter earnings season were mixed. Weakness in Korean large-cap chip stocks appears to be linked to this trend.
There are positive signals too. According to LSEG, analysts expect third-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies to grow by more than 30%. On the other hand, although the S&P 500 is up about 14% this year, the median stock in the index has gained less than 5% and more than 200 stocks are down from the start of the year, which suggests the rally is concentrated in large AI stocks.
⑤ Tonight’s variables: US CPI, plus the Middle East and oil
The US September consumer price index (CPI) is due tonight. The US 10-year yield was 5.22% as of October 8, high relative to the past three years (99th percentile), so the CPI result could again swing yields and the dollar. On October 12 (local time), international oil prices rose 2% after an attack on a Saudi airport and the dollar hit an 18-month high; on October 14 the dollar pulled back somewhat from that peak.
President Trump claimed that the Houthi attacks are meant to push up oil prices ahead of US elections. Meanwhile, the US and Russia agreed to expand diesel supplies, but experts say this is not enough to rein in oil prices.
📌 Good to Know
- Positives: A steadier won, exporters’ dollar selling, and expectations for higher US third-quarter profits are supporting the market.
- Headwinds: Continued foreign selling, concerns about memory-chip competition such as CXMT, and high US yields weigh on sentiment.
- Watch volatility: With the index near the 6,000 level and daily swings large, leveraged and short-term trading calls for particular caution.
- Check the data first: Tonight’s CPI result could change the direction of the won and foreign flows. This post is not investment advice, and investment decisions and responsibility rest with you.
In short, the KOSPI’s decline on October 14 was small, but an early 2% rebound ran into foreign selling and extended the losing streak to six sessions. The won stabilized, yet worries about the chip cycle, high US yields and Middle East-driven oil prices remain a burden. Tonight’s US CPI could be a turning point for what comes next.
References
- YTN – [Breaking] KOSPI closes 0.44% lower at 6,008.81 (ytn.co.kr)
- Businesskorea – [Market Close] KOSPI barely holds 6,000 on 1.1 trillion won foreign selling (businesskorea.co.kr)
- Seoul Economic Daily – Won-dollar rate turns lower after one day, closes at 1,338.3 (sedaily.com)
- Newspim – Wall Street falls as chips weaken for a fifth straight session (newspim.com)
- Etoday – [Breaking] Wall Street closes lower, Nasdaq down 0.15% (etoday.co.kr)
- Special Times – Wall Street falls on bank earnings that missed expectations and chip weakness (specialtimes.co.kr)
- Chickstock – Foreign net selling extends to 14 sessions (chickstockfi.com)