The Easy Knowledge Blog

From Treasury buybacks to a weaker dollar — bitcoin breaks back above $80,000 for the first time since May

🎧 Post Summary

Bitcoin has knocked on the $80,000 door again, a level it hadn’t cleared since May. The climb has been steep, up 27% in just a month, and behind it is an unusual intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Whether this rally is just a bounce or the start of a new phase is something analysts abroad are somewhat divided on. Here’s a closer look at the background and the outlook.

Bitcoin touches $80,000 — up 27% in a month

On the morning of the 25th (KST), bitcoin on Binance’s USDT market rose 4.31% from the previous day to touch $80,864, reclaiming the $80,000 level for the first time since May. The weekly gain stands at a striking 29%. On Upbit’s won market, it traded up 2.13% from the previous day at around 110.84 million won. According to CoinDesk, bitcoin has climbed roughly 27% over the past month, extending the sharp rebound seen over the past week.

Altcoins rally too — solana back above $100 for the first time in 6 months

Bitcoin’s strength quickly spread to the altcoin market. Ethereum traded up 2.77% from the previous day at $2,513.52 on Binance’s USDT market, while XRP rose 2.86% to $1.52. Solana’s gain stood out the most, jumping 7.4% from the previous day to $101.57, breaking back above the $100 mark for the first time in about six months. According to Hankyung, ethereum surged 15% on Korean exchanges to reach 3.097 million won, marking its first time back in the 3-million-won range since May 25, three months ago.

Behind the rally — Treasury buybacks and renewed liquidity optimism

The key driver behind this rally is the U.S. Treasury’s expanded long-term bond buyback program. As the Treasury ramped up purchases of long-dated bonds, both Treasury yields and the dollar’s value fell in tandem, pulling investment demand toward rate-sensitive risk assets. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, told CoinDesk that a mix of lower long-term Treasury yields, dollar weakness, renewed ETF demand, and short position liquidations combined to drive the rebound. He added that more than $2.7 billion in bearish (short) positions were reportedly liquidated during the initial surge alone.

“A pullback would be healthy” — the next gate analysts are watching

Still, analysts abroad broadly agree that the real test starts now. Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus pointed to the break above key moving averages, rising volume, and improved market breadth as signs of a possible trend shift, but noted that the rally has left bitcoin overbought in the short term, making a pullback necessary. He’s watching the $67,000-$70,000 range as support if the retreat becomes more pronounced, and warned that previous bear markets have seen sharp short-covering rallies that were later erased.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, expects bitcoin to trade in a $74,000-$81,000 range in the near term, with a pullback to $75,000-$76,000 possible as traders take profits after the recent surge. He said, however, that spot demand, particularly from institutional investors, needs to take the place of short-covering for bitcoin to move into the next upside zone of $82,000-$87,000.

Above $83,000, $100,000 comes into view — but caution remains

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage flagged that the $80,000-$90,000 range has historically seen very little trading volume. He said that in thin zones, price tends to move through quickly in either direction, and argued that some consolidation between $75,000 and $83,000 would help the market build a solid base. He added that a confirmed move above $83,000 could open the path toward testing the $100,000 level. LMAX Group’s Kruger also pointed to $83,000 as the next major resistance level, echoing an optimistic view. What all these analysts emphasize, though, is the question of who buys next: if short covering drove this rally, sustained gains from here will require continued spot demand and institutional inflows.

Things Worth Keeping in Mind

• Since liquidity optimism from Treasury buybacks and short liquidations are the main drivers behind this rally, it’s worth watching whether buying shifts toward genuine spot demand.
• Analysts abroad have flagged the $80,000-$90,000 range as thinly traded, so keep in mind that prices could swing more sharply than expected.
• With short-term overbought signals in place, it’s worth watching how the $67,000-$76,000 support levels mentioned by analysts hold up during any pullback.
• The crypto market is a highly volatile asset class, so investment decisions should be made carefully, with your own risk tolerance in mind.

With bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door again after five months, market attention is at its highest in some time. But the common message from analysts abroad is that this is really just the beginning of the test. How shallow the next pullback is, and which buyers step in to support it, will likely determine whether this turns into a rally that carries bitcoin past $80,000 toward $100,000, or just another pullback waiting to happen.

Sources

• Bloomingbit – “[Market] Bitcoin recovers $80,000…first time since May” (bloomingbit.io)
• CoinDesk – “Bitcoin nears $80,000, but analysts say the next pullback will be key” (coindesk.com)
• Dailian – “Bitcoin jumps 25%, drawing interest again…is now the time to get in?” (dailian.co.kr)
• CBC News – “Bitcoin hits 7-month high…next resistance level is the turning point” (cbci.co.kr)
• TokenPost – “[Morning Market Briefing] Crypto market rallies…bitcoin at $78,753, ethereum at $2,471” (tokenpost.kr)
• Hankyung – “Bitcoin posts biggest gain in 5 months…ethereum rises even more” (hankyung.com)