The Easy Knowledge Blog

The short war everyone expected didn’t turn out that way

🎧 Post Summary

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a massive airstrike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and Supreme Leader Khamenei, kicking off a war that many expected to be a “short conflict.” But more than six months later, there’s still no sign of it ending. If anything, a former U.S. Secretary of Defense has now suggested it could run another six months. Why has this war dragged on so much longer than expected?

① “Six More Months” — A Warning From a Former Defense Secretary

Leon Panetta, who served as CIA Director and Secretary of Defense under the Obama administration, told the Guardian on September 6 (local time) that the Iran war is likely to continue for another six months. More than six months after the U.S. and Israel began their assault on Iran, he assessed that President Trump has put himself in a position where it’s difficult to extract the country from the war. His diagnosis is that the current stalemate — with both sides trading intermittent retaliatory strikes — could persist, as each side refuses to negotiate or capitulate while also avoiding all-out escalation.

② A U.S. Military Also Grappling With Command Chaos

Panetta also pointed to severe disarray within the Pentagon’s chain of command, saying troops are going to war “with a sense that nobody is in charge.” Indeed, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll submitted his resignation on the 31st of last month, a move reportedly tied to conflict over a string of senior generals being dismissed. Panetta warned that this dysfunction is sending a signal of American weakness to adversaries including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

③ Even the White House Can’t Say When It Will End

Asked on the 3rd whether the military conflict with Iran would end before November’s U.S. midterm elections, Vice President JD Vance said, “I don’t know the answer to that question. You’d have to ask Iran.” The fact that not even the top ranks of the White House can predict when the war will end suggests that it is being prolonged not by a specific military objective, but by the political calculations of both sides.

④ What’s Changed Over Six Months

Looking back at the situation since the war began in late February, Iran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. ramped up pressure through sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and its “Operation Economic Outcast.” Two separate ceasefire agreements, in April and June, both fell apart, and in late August, the U.S. military broke a month-long lull to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) rocket launcher sites in southern Iran along the Strait of Hormuz again. Contrary to early expectations that the regime would collapse or a deal would be struck after a brief clash, the war is now seen as drifting into the kind of long, grinding conflict that characterized the Syrian civil war.

⑤ A Longer War, a Growing Economic Burden

As the war drags on, it’s placing growing structural pressure on global oil prices and interest rates. Amid the continuing Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, there’s even talk this week of a possible rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). Since Korea also depends heavily on the Middle East for its oil imports, there are concerns that if the war stretches toward a year, the country won’t be able to avoid a cumulative burden across energy costs, inflation, and interest rates.

📌 Key Takeaways

• This is one former official’s personal assessment — the actual end date will depend on unpredictable variables like political timelines and the intensity of military clashes.
• A prolonged war isn’t a one-off event; it should be viewed as a structural risk that accumulates across oil prices, interest rates, and exchange rates.
• U.S. domestic political timing — namely November’s midterm elections — could itself become a variable in any ceasefire negotiations.
• Since expert opinions diverge sharply on this issue, it’s worth weighing multiple scenarios rather than making hasty judgments based on any single forecast.

Contrary to expectations that it would end quickly, the U.S.-Iran war has now passed the six-month mark and entered a phase where forecasts suggest it could run another six months. With command chaos and political timelines both in play, it looks difficult to predict for now when or how this war will actually come to an end.

References

• Financial News – “Iran War Passes Half a Year… ‘Six More Months to Go,’ Says Former U.S. Defense Secretary” (fnnews.com)
• Namu Wiki – “U.S.-Iran War / Outlook” (namu.wiki)
• Namu Wiki – “2026 Middle East Crisis” (namu.wiki)
• Wikipedia – “2026 Iran War” (ko.wikipedia.org)
• Silverpia Online – “The History of the U.S.-Iran War and the State of the 2026 Conflict” (silverpiaonline.com)
• Korea Social Welfare Journal – “[New Release] The U.S.-Iran War: A World Where the Economy Became a Weapon” (ksw-news.com)