Renewed clashes over the Strait of Hormuz are sending global oil prices swinging again
📌 Post Summary
The United States and Iran have clashed militarily again over the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran attacked an oil tanker, the U.S. military struck Iranian coastal radar installations, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated with ballistic missiles against U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Global oil prices have surged more than 7% in two days, with Brent crude climbing into the mid-$90s per barrel, and expert forecasts now range from the $90s to an extreme scenario of $150. President Trump said reaching a ceasefire deal would take considerable time.
The fragile truce between the United States and Iran has broken down once again. A tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a new round of strikes and retaliation, plunging the global oil market back into a tense standoff. Crude prices have jumped more than 7% in two days, and analysts are sharply divided over how high they could go from here. This article traces how the crisis unfolded, rounds up the key forecasts from major institutions, and looks at what it means for Korean markets.
① Hormuz Flares Up Again — From the Tanker Attack to the U.S. Response
The latest clash began when Iran attacked an oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said it shot down four Iranian suicide drones before striking Iranian coastal radar installations on Larak and Qeshm islands to prevent further provocations. The U.S. military described the move as a precision strike in response to Iran’s threats against commercial vessels transiting the strait.
② Iran Retaliates — Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Immediately after the U.S. strike, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by firing seven ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Donald Trump said Iran had “dug in” and that reaching a ceasefire agreement would take considerable time. Iran, for its part, is demanding the release of $24 billion (about 37 trillion won) in frozen assets as a precondition for ending hostilities, suggesting negotiations will remain difficult.
③ Oil Prices Surge More Than 7% in Two Days — Nearing $100 Again
Oil markets reacted immediately to the escalation. Brent crude for November delivery on London’s ICE futures exchange closed up 4.6% at $94.65 a barrel, its highest level since late July. WTI crude for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped 5.2% to $90.22 a barrel. With hopes fading for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, concerns about supply disruptions have spread across the market. U.S. Treasury yields have also held near 20-month highs, adding to inflation worries.
④ Expert Oil Price Forecasts: From $90 to $150, All Over the Map
Forecasts for where oil prices go from here vary widely by institution.
- Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank): growing concern over long-term disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz is fueling expectations that Brent could break above $100 a barrel within days.
- HFI Research: warned that Brent could spike to as much as $150 a barrel if the conflict drags on, noting that U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP): its scenario analysis found that an early ceasefire would still leave prices around $90 through Q4 2027 due to lingering facility damage; a prolonged blockade would push prices above $100; and in a worst-case scenario where energy facilities are directly hit, global oil output could fall by roughly 20%, sending prices as high as $129–$181 a barrel.
- Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy): warned that uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz — tied to Iran’s demands for further concessions — could push U.S. gasoline prices higher again.
⑤ Impact on Korea — Refiners, Shipbuilders, Defense Stocks React, Won Watched
The oil price surge is also adding volatility to Korean markets. The KOSPI widened its intraday losses amid a recent supply-demand vacuum, though buyback purchases by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix helped cushion the downside. By sector, shipbuilding, construction and defense stocks drew interest on hopes of Middle East reconstruction, while refiners’ share prices have moved in mixed directions between rising costs and refining margins. Meanwhile, the won has recently weakened past 1,350 per dollar, though oil prices and geopolitical risk remain factors that could push it back the other way.
📌 Things to Keep in Mind
- Rising oil prices could directly raise costs for Korea’s refining, aviation, and shipping industries.
- The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of the world’s seaborne oil trade, so prolonged disruption could have wide-reaching effects.
- Expert forecasts vary widely by scenario, so specific figures are best treated as risk-management reference points rather than certainties.
- Geopolitical events tend to amplify market volatility, so maintaining a diversified investment approach is more prudent than reacting to short-term price swings.
The U.S.-Iran conflict remains stuck in an unstable cycle of ceasefire and renewed clashes. Since oil is one of the assets most sensitive to geopolitical risk in the short term, the pace of any negotiations and the timing of a return to normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be the key variables determining where prices go next.
References
- YTN (ytn.co.kr)
- Ajunews (ajunews.com)
- The Korea Economic Daily (hankyung.com)
- Money Today (mt.co.kr)
- Etoday (etoday.co.kr)
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy – KIEP (kiep.go.kr)
- Benzinga Korea (kr.benzinga.com)